In order for Kaymer to have a chance he must continue to drive and putt the ball well. That sounds fairly obvious but at the U.S. Open those shots are of the utmost importance. If Kaymer drops a few shots early and falls back to the pack I do not think he will win. The players at 2 under par or better will all have chance to overtake him and then it will be a shootout to the finish.
Overall it should be another exciting finish to a major championship. GoBigGolf.com predicts that if Martin Kaymer doesn't win then Dustin Johnson will be the one guy that takes advantage and wins his first major.